🏈 AFL Round Round 22 — Model Overview
Round Round 22 of the 2026 Australian Football League season is locked in and our XGBoost model has processed every fixture. Here's what the data is saying this week — plus our qualifying tips for the round.
Our recent AFL record: 2W/1L (67% strike rate) on qualifying tips over the last 4 weeks. Every result is tracked publicly at puntersedge.online/record.
How We Pick Our AFL Round Round 22 Tips
For each Round Round 22 fixture, the model analyses rolling form (last 3, 5 and 10 games), head-to-head records, home ground advantage, score differentials and current momentum. Only games where the model reaches 65% confidence or higher generate a tip — everything else is a NO BET.
This round the model has identified 6 qualifying tips. Here's the full breakdown:
Round Round 22 Fixture Tips
Brisbane vs Hawthorn
📅 Monday 03 August at Gabba
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Geelong vs Essendon
📅 Monday 03 August at Kardinia Park
GWS vs Gold Coast
📅 Monday 03 August at Manuka Oval
Melbourne vs Fremantle
📅 Monday 03 August at M.C.G.
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
St Kilda vs Carlton
📅 Monday 03 August at Docklands
No qualifying tip for this match (model confidence below threshold).
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
📅 Monday 03 August at S.C.G.
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
📅 Monday 03 August at Docklands
Adelaide vs Richmond
📅 Monday 03 August at Adelaide Oval
West Coast vs Collingwood
📅 Monday 03 August at Perth Stadium
Staking Guide for Round Round 22
As always, size your bets according to the tip tier:
- 💰 VALUE (1u) — 65–74% model confidence. Solid edge but some uncertainty.
- 💪 STRONG (2u) — 75–84% confidence. Double your standard unit.
- 🏆 BANKER (3u) — 85%+ confidence. Maximum recommended stake.
Keep your unit size at 1–2% of your total bankroll. Consistency over a full season is where the edge shows up — not in any single round.
Get Every AFL Tip This Season
Members receive the full AFL card every round delivered directly to their Telegram DMs at 7am AEST on game day — alongside NBA, EPL, LaLiga, Bundesliga and Tennis coverage. $29/month. No lock-in. Cancel anytime.
Or join the free channel for one tip per day: t.me/ThePuntersEdgeAU
18+ only. Please gamble responsibly. Set a deposit limit before you bet. Gambling Help Online: 1800 858 858.